Current distance between top pros and top AI

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Current distance between top pros and top AI

I was searching for some information on the current distance between top pros and top AI and all I could find was this article from three years ago:

I'm sure that today it's quite possible that top AI may have started approaching 50% wins at 4 stones, however pros might also have improved a bit from learning with AI. Maybe by 2030 AI will reach 50% against top pros at 4 stones and plateau there until quantum computing weakly solves go and is at 50% with pros on 5 Chinese handicap stones.

On another point, An Youngill hesitatingly said that the distance between top pros and top female pros is about one stone. Today female #5 Fujisawa Rina is at 3252, and #2 Kie Jie is 3718. So 466 points for about 1 stone. Fujisawa Sensei recently beat a new female 1dan giving a 1 stone handicap, and if we assume she's at about the same Level as Antti Törmänen, the difference is slightly less. We can assume that 1 stone stronger than the top pros mean a higher probability of wins, given win probability in an even game per handicap stone increases with strength.

So an AI that is even with the top pros on 1 stone may be 4200. At 2 stones maybe 4750. at 3 likely 5350, and at 4, maybe 6000.


When I was studying in Korean in 2015 I saw an AI win at 4 stones against 1 to 4 dan pro. It was incredible, but Top pros are different I think 3 stones is the maximum.